‘Er hangt een enorm prijskaartje aan opwarmen van Noordpoolgebied’

AMSTERDAM – Het opwarmen van 1 bepaald gebied in de Noordpool kan een enorm prijskaartje met zich meebrengen. Omgerekend zou dit kunnen oplopen tot 45 biljoen euro, bijna net zoveel als wat de wereld in 1 jaar verdient.

Smeltend ijs van de NoordpoolDit stellen onderzoekers in een commentaar in het wetenschappelijke blad Nature.

“De wereldwijde impact van een opwarmende Noordpool is een economische tijdbom”, zegt Gail Whiteman, hoogleraar Duurzaamheid  aan Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University (RSM).

Hij modelleerde samen met wetenschappers Chris Hope en Peter Wadhams van de universiteit van het Britse Cambridge de impact van het vrijkomen van 50 gigaton methaan in de komende 10 jaar door het ontdooien van de permafrostlaag onder de Oost-Siberische Zee.

Economische voordelen 

Vaak wordt aangehaald dat het ontdooien van ijslagen in de Noordpool ook zorgt voor economische voordelen. Er komen bijvoorbeeld nieuwe scheepvaartroutes vrij en gasvelden worden bereikbaar, maar deze houding mist een helikopterperspectief, aldus de auteurs.

“Het vrijkomen van methaan kan de datum waarop de wereldwijde mediaantemperatuurstijging meer dan 2 graden Celsius bedraagt met 15 tot 35 jaar versnellen”, legt Chris Hope uit.

Klimaatconsequenties

“Als er geen maatregelen ter compensatie van de klimaatveranderingen worden genomen, zullen mediaan genomen de wereldwijde klimaatconsequenties met 45 biljoen euro omhoog gaan volgens de berekeningen van het PAGE09 model.”

Volgens Whiteman “dienen zowel wereldleiders als het WEF en IMF meer aandacht te besteden aan deze onzichtbare tijdbom.  De mediane impact van dit ene effect alleen al – 45 biljoen euro – benadert de waarde van de gehele wereldeconomie in 2012. Die was 52 biljoen euro.” 

Lees hier het complete stuk in Nature

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Foto copyright:  NASA Goddard Photo and Video

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